100 Economists Expect a Fed Rate Hike in December, Reuters Poll Shows

100 Economists Expect a Fed Rate Hike in December, Reuters Poll Shows

Published October 21, 2026 · Finance-Solutes.com Research Desk

A Fed rate hike in December is now the unanimous call among economists surveyed by Reuters. All 100 respondents expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December 8-9 meeting. That marks a sharp shift from September, when fewer than half held that view.

Most of them still expect a pause at the October 27-28 meeting. Persistent inflation is the main reason behind the change. The poll was conducted from October 16 to 20, according to Reuters as reported by Investing.com.

Investor takeaway: Economists see tighter policy ahead, with a December hike as the base case. The decision still depends on incoming inflation, jobs and growth data, so it is not a done deal.

What the Reuters Poll Found

The survey shows a clear split between the near term and the end of the year. Of the 100 economists polled, 94 expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in October. All 100 expect a 25 basis point hike in December.

The September poll looked very different. Back then, fewer than half of economists predicted a December increase. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, which set the current range.

Why Persistent Inflation Is Driving the Shift

Fresh inflation data helped harden these expectations. The US consumer price index rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier. That compares with 3.4% in August. Higher gasoline prices were a major driver of the increase.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% over the same period. The Fed prefers the personal consumption expenditures price index. The Reuters survey expects PCE inflation to stay above the 2% target in the coming quarters. It may not return to that level before 2028.

Where Could Interest Rates Peak?

Expectations for the peak rate have also moved higher. Nearly 60% of economists see the policy rate topping out between 4.00% and 4.25%. That implies one more hike beyond the current range.

Some see a longer tightening cycle. Of the 92 economists who gave a path beyond December, 38 expect at least two more hikes. That share is well above the September survey. A few analysts also say a 50 basis point move should not be ruled out if inflation stays hot.

A Resilient Economy Gives the Fed Room to Act

Growth is holding up, which adds to the case for tighter policy. The poll forecasts US GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Solid growth gives the Fed more room to focus on inflation.

It also raises the risk that rates stay high for longer. Economists stress that the Fed has not committed to a December move. The final call depends on the data released between now and the meeting.

What It Means for Investors

A higher rate path can ripple across several asset classes. The main channels to watch are:

• Treasury yields: Expectations of more hikes tend to push yields higher, especially at the short end.
• The US dollar: Higher rates usually support the dollar against other major currencies.
• Gold: The metal pays no yield, so rising rates and a firmer dollar often weigh on it.
• Rate-sensitive assets: Growth stocks, real estate and leveraged borrowers feel higher capital costs most.

Market snapshot (October 21, 2026, morning in Vietnam): Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded near $4,117 an ounce, down about 0.2% on the day. Prices move quickly, so check live quotes before acting on any figure here.

Key Dates and Data to Watch

• October 27-28: The next Fed meeting, where most economists expect rates to hold at 3.75% to 4.00%.
• November: The October CPI report, the next major test of the inflation trend.
• December 8-9: The Fed meeting where economists expect the next 25 basis point hike.

Forecasts can change fast when new data surprises. A softer inflation or jobs report could weaken the December case. A hotter one could strengthen it, and could raise talk of a larger move.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Economic forecasts can change quickly, and market prices should be checked against real-time data before any investment decision. For personalized guidance, Finance-Solutes.com offers free courses and expert advisors to help turn news like this into a strategy that fits your own portfolio.

Source: Reuters poll of economists (October 16 to 20, 2026), as reported by Investing.com.

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